The repeated violations of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) by India
has exposed millions of people in Pakistan to hunger and starvation amid looming threats to
livestock and agriculture sectors in Pakistan, experts said, urging World Bank being IWT
guranteer to force fascist Modi Govt to reverse it.
The recent extra ordinary reduction of water flow in Chanab River by India could threatened
livestock and agriculture sectors especially in Azad Kashmir and Punjab provinces, said
Professor Dr Zilakat Malik, former Chairman Economics Department at University of Peshawar
while talking to APP.
In December 2025, he said the Chenab River in Pakistan has experienced an extraordinary
reduction in water flow at the Marala headworks, with levels dropping to 870 cusecs,
significantly below the 10-year minimum of 4,000–4,400 cusecs.
He said that blocking or restricting water was a serious offence under international law and the
world especially UNO and World Bank should took notice of repeated IWT violations by the
India over petty issues.
Dr Zilakat said Ministry of Water Resources indicated that satellite imagery from December 8
and 13, 2025, showed a significant reduction in the surface area of the Baglihar dam located in
India, indicating water was being retained, which triggered the flow reduction at Marala.
He said recent drop in water levels at Chanab has threatened to cause severe shortages of
edible crops besides meat and milk production in Pakistan.
Dr Zilakat said that India was using water as a weapon of war and such illegal move by holding
IWT in abyance waa tantamount of putting millions of people to hunger and starvation.
He warned that reduction of flow of water in Chanab will likely to affect about 40% of
agriculture crops including wheat and rice that will threatening livelihoods in Pakistan.
The situation in December 2025 follows a similar, major reduction event earlier in the same
year, specifically around May 2025, where flows were also drastically reduced.
Professor Dr Adnan Sarwar Khan, former Chairman International Relations Department at
University of Peshawar while condemning India’s announcement to hold the Indus Water
Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, said the unilateral move was a grave threat to water security, food
production, and energy stability for millions of people in Pakistan, urging the World Bank being
a guarantor, to prevent the fascist Modi Govt of taking such illegal action.
He said that any unilateral move to suspend or hold IWT in abeyance strongly contradicts
international legal frameworks, conventions, agreements and treaties, including guarantees
extended by the World Bank and rulings of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA).
The water rights over the three western rivers namely Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab were
mutually recognized under the landmark IWT signed in 1960 with guarantee by the World Bank.
There is no provision allowing either party to unilaterally suspend, terminate or hold this treaty
protected by the World Bank.
He emphasized that the Indus Basin supports nearly 300 million people across the region, and
any disruption in water flows to Pakistan could jeopardize agriculture, hydropower generation,
and livelihoods that may put over 245 million people to hunger and starvation besides energy
blackout which may create serious security issues.
He said that Pakistan’s major water infrastructure along the Indus River system including
Tarbela Dam, under-construction Diamer-Bhasha Dam, and Dasu Hydropower Project depends
heavily on uninterrupted river flows.
Alike, key installations such as Tarbela, Ghazi-Barotha, and major barrages including Jinnah,
Chashma, Taunsa, Guddu, and Sukkur could face operational challenges if water supplies are
curtailed and likely to create energy crisis for millions of people in the region.
Constructed on the Indus River, Tarbela is one of the world’s largest earth-filled dams and a
critical source of irrigation water and electricity for Pakistan.
Dr. Sarwar added that the Indus Basin Project, initiated after the 1960 treaty, led to the
construction of Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River to manage water supplies for agriculture and
domestic consumption and IWT is very important in this context.
Mangla Dam (1,070 MW), completed in 1967, remains a key hydropower and water storage
facility constructed on River Jehlum. Other major water and dams projects on the Jhelum River
include the 969 MW Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Plant that was completed in 2018 and the
720 MW Karot Hydropower Project, both vital for electricity production and irrigation water
management.
Water infrastructure along the Chenab River such as Marala, Khanki, and Qadirabad headworks
also plays a central role in regulating canal flows for agricultural use in Punjab and that is why
Pakistan had signed IWT to ensure dispute free water sharing with India after a conflict on
water was developed soon after independence.
Manzoorul Haq, a former ambassador, said this landmark treaty has historically survived
periods of conflict, including the wars of 1948, 1965, 1971 and Kargil conflict in 1999,
underscoring its significance and importance for both the states.
He said that the agreement, signed in September 1960 by President Ayub Khan of Pakistan and
Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru of India, allocated the eastern rivers Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi to
India, while reserving the western rivers of Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab for Pakistan.
Barrister Noman Kakakhel, senior member of Peshawar High Court Bar Association and
International Law Experts, said that unilateral suspension of the treaty lacks legal basis and
diplomatic support for India.
He referred to the recent historic ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague,
which reaffirmed that the treaty remains binding on both countries and does not permit any
unilateral abeyance for suspension.
According to legal experts, Article XII(4) of the treaty provides for termination only through
mutual written agreement between the two states and not unilaterally by any state.
“The treaty contains no clause allowing unilateral suspension, abeyance or withdrawal. It is of
indefinite duration and remains binding regardless of changes in government,” they
emphasized.
On August 8, 2025, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that India must adhere strictly to
the treaty’s design parameters for hydroelectric projects, particularly on the western rivers
flowing to Pakistan, and cannot introduce features enabling excessive water storage and dams
on western rivers that was widely hailed.
Professor Dr. Minhas Majeed Khan, Chairman of the International Relations Department at the
University of Peshawar, warned that unilateral actions by an upper riparian state like India
could set a dangerous precedent in international water law.
She said such illegal moves by India to create food insecurity in Pakistan.
She cautioned that normalization of such measures could have broader implications for
regional stability and future transboundary water agreements worldwide.
They said Pakistan and India have fought four wars and another battle between two nuclear
armed countries on water may engulf the entire region.
The experts collectively stressed that international agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty
must be upheld in good faith to ensure regional peace, food security, and economic stability.
They urged the international community, particularly the World Bank as guarantor of the
treaty, to play an active role in preserving the integrity of the agreement and put pressure on
Modi Govt to reverse its decision imperatively for lasting peace and stability in South Asia.
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